By Andy Spence – May 3rd, 2023
On 4th April 2023 Finland became the 31st member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). This is a move that has been expected ever since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Russia and Finland: A complex relationship
Russia and Finland have a long and complex relationship which spans centuries of empire and war. Finland was a part of the Russian Empire until it gained independence in 1917 following the Russian Revolution. During the Second World War, Finland was against the USSR and backed NAZI Germany in an effort to maintain their political independence from Russia.
NATO/Russia Buffer Zone – A thing of the past?
After the Second World War Finland was to remain neutral and make up part of a ‘buffer zone’ between the East and West. This buffer zone has now been almost entirely dismantled. Even prior to Finland’s enterence into NATO, the Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joined NATO in 2004 which became the first time NATO and Russian land had touched. The direct border between NATO and Russian territory has doubled with the admission of Finland into the Alliance.
NATOs expansion eastward is what Russia claims triggered the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 as Russia were supposedly seeking to prevent Ukraine from falling into NATO. However, Putin’s plan to prevent NATO’s expansion has only furthered and accelerated it by panicking other countries which neighbour Russia. It is unlikely that Finland will be the last in the region to join the Alliance. Sweden are currently in the process of joining NATO and it has been announced that Ukraine will join the Alliance when suitable.
Whenever there is talk of NATO expansion into Eastern Europe or Scandinavia, Russia accuses NATO of acting aggressively. These are claims which have been adamently rejected by NATO.
“NATO is a defensive alliance, NATO and Finland have never been, and will never be, a threat to Russia. It is Russia that has invaded neighbours.”
Jens Stoltenberg – NATO Secretary General
Ukraine in NATO?
With NATO reaching the Russian border up at the Baltic Sea, it is worth taking a look further south at Ukraine. Ukraine joining NATO would be a catastrophe for Russia who seek to turn Ukraine into a Russian puppet state like Belarus. In fact, the Russian invasion of Ukraine was largely to prevent Ukraine from joining the Alliance at all. However, it appears that the invasion may have backfired in that regard. In a surprise visit to Ukraine in April, Secretary General Stoltenberg reassured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Ukraine will be welcomed into NATO.
“Ukraine’s rightful place is in NATO and over time our support will help you make this possible.”
Jens Stoltenberg – NATO Secretary General
However, Ukraine will not be able to join NATO whilst at war with Russia. Article 5 of the Washington Treaty which pertains to the collective defence aspect of the Alliance would instantly to triggered by any Russian attack therefore leading to a full NATO vs Russia war. Therefore it will be untenable for Ukraine to join NATO until the war is concluded.
Is Sweden Next?
Sweden and Finland applied to join NATO together in 2022, so why has only Finland joined?
Before a state can join NATO, all pre-existing NATO members are required to approve the application. Sweden’s application has been halted by two NATO members, Hungary and Turkey. The main issue is with Turkey who accuse Sweden of supporting, what Turkey deems to be, Kurdish terrorist groups. This raises questions of whether domestic issues should be used to hinder international affairs which are unrelated to the domestic issues in question.
Despite the hold up caused by Hungary and Turkey, Stoltenberg remains confident that Sweden will soon become the 32rd NATO member.
“I’m confident that Sweden will become a member not least because all NATO allies, also Turkey, invited Sweden to become a member.”
Jens Stoltenberg – NATO Secretary General
Therefore, it seems as if the expansion of NATO will not stop at 31 member states and that Sweden will imminently join. Likewise, Ukraine will join once the Russo-Ukraine war comes to an end.
This topic was discussed on the most recent episode of the Lunch Bunch, stream here on Spotify!
Politics Hour 